Predictive times

Much is discussed about the likely times that athletes might run over certain distances and there are a variety of “apps” online to predict this. Much of course will depend on the training for the specific event…imagine calibrating 5k times to running a marathon without the additional training required!

One point to bear in mind even moving from 5k to a marathon, is that both distances are run totally aerobically (with oxygen), hence similar energy systems!

I was coaching on the track last night and the distances ranged from 400m to 800m through to 1600m. This perhaps allows for a better feel for an athletes preferred abilities.

As a rule of thumb, and this can vary with both age and gender, decay curves between 400 to 800 metres and then 800 to 1600 metres are circa 10%. This means that an athlete running 1.30 for 400 metres would likely run 3.18 for 800 metres (double plus 10%).

Then to transfer to 1600 metres…3.18 would double to 6.36 plus 10% and become 7.16.

OK…What can we learn…if the athlete has a decay curve much less than 10%…i.e. 800m to 1600m. 3.18>7.16. but actually runs 6.40! The suggestion then would be that the athlete has endurance but not speed…so, plenty of fast 100’s…200’s etc.

The reverse…the decay curve drops dramatically, and more than 10%…i.e. 800m to 1600m. 3.18>7.16 but actually runs 7.45. The suggestion then would be that the athlete has speed but not endurance.…so, more 800/1000/1200 reps etc.

There is a clear divide between sprinters and distance runners in terms of muscle make up. Endurance athletes have a high proportion of type 1 muscle fibres…up to 80%. Sprinters around 30%! Much of this is genetic. Athletes from the East coast of Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia etc, benefit from a high percentage of class 1 muscle fibres…Caribbean athletes and those from Southern Africa tend to have the reverse! Some years ago, I was fortunate to spend an hour with Sir Alex Ferguson. We discussed the physiology of athletes and Manchester United had carried out a good degree of research which confirmed the above. The dynamic pace required by professional athletes suggested the exact same in where to hunt hidden gems of athletic footballers.

Ultimately, a training plan should combine a mix of fast intervals, tempo runs, longer runs, easy days and more!

What is stopping you!